A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
